Global Policy Forum

Uppsala University has published a scathing assessment of the International Energy Agency's annual world Energy Outlook, just a few days after two insiders revealed that the agency was downplaying the potential for future oil scarcity. The study warns of the IEA's increased politicization, describing the report as a "political document" developed for consumer countries with a vested interest in low prices. In order to meet the agency's predictions, oil would have to be extracted at a pace never seen before. (The Guardian)

The world is going to run out of oil even earlier than predicted, says a senior official at the International Energy Agency (IEA). The whistleblower claims that the organization has been deliberately downplaying the seriousness of a looming oil shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. Under pressure from the US, the agency has been underplaying the rate of decline of existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves. These revelations cast serious doubt on the World Energy Outlook, a report on oil demand and supply published every year by the IEA on which many governments rely to set their energy and climate change policies. (The Guardian)

This in-depth report by Global Witness calls for governments worldwide to stop counting on the increasing availability of oil and recognize that we are facing an imminent oil supply crunch. Due to the combination of four trends - oil field depletion, declining discovery rates, insufficient new projects and rising demand - it will soon be impossible to increase the volume of oil on the market to meet demand. Because oil provides one third of the world's primary energy, this will have serious consequences on food security and international stability. Energy rivalries - if not energy wars - can be expected to multiply. Rising international tensions will also make it more difficult for countries to cooperate in order to tackle the problem of climate change.

The latest report of the US Department of Energy has revealed the future of oil as it becomes increasingly scarce and costly. China is predicted to take over the US as the number one energy consumer by 2014. While Washington has tense relations with Iran, Sudan and other oil producers, Beijing is building closer ties with many of these countries. Competition and strife between the great powers will be accompanied by significant economic and environmental backlash.

This analysis by TomDispatch suggests that despite falling prices, oil will continue to have a global impact. The natural resource, which has fueled many of the world's conflicts, will remain the world's largest energy supply for decades to come. Instead of relieving competition, low prices are likely to ignite internal unrest within producing nations. Falling energy prices will force governments to cut back on programs for the most vulnerable, which will ultimately affect the countries' stability.

The US Geological Survey estimates that the Artic circle region holds one quarter of the world's undiscovered gas and oil reserves. The US, Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway compete for parts of the North Pole to secure natural resources. These countries invest in technical equipment like icebreakers and Artic patrol ships to locate natural resources and also submit Artic ownership claims to the UN. (Der Spiegel)

US geologists, assessing the region north of the Arctic Circle, revealed that the region may contain as much as one fifth of the world's undiscovered, yet recoverable oil and natural gas reserves. Five countries – the US, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark – are already claiming stakes on the resources, boosting a competition that will surely lead to the environmental degradation of the region. (Independent)

Russia, Denmark, Canada, Norway and the US have signed a treaty to "carve-up" the natural resources in the Arctic, according to the Guardian. The treaty allows the countries a territorial right in the area based upon their coastline and undersea continental shelf. Greenpeace International criticized the signatories of the treaty for excluding environmental groups and local inhabitants, the Inuit's, from the talks, and warned that exploiting oil reserves in the Arctic would accelerate the process of global warming.

Russia and the US compete for vast oil reserves in the Arctic, according to Vanity Fair. Although the UN currently prohibits oil exploration in the area under the Law of the Sea Convention, both countries claim territorial rights to the region stating that their continental shelf extends to the polar ice cap. The author warns that drilling for oil in the Arctic will speed up global warming, destroy fragile ecosystems, and threaten the existence of indigenous populations in the Arctic.

Several UN Member States have an interest in preventing democratic reform in Myanmar, says the Jakarta Post. The editorial notes that China supports the military rulers in exchange for natural gas and the construction of a pipeline from Myanmar into its Yunnan province. Furthermore, India and Thailand offer the junta financial support, hoping to gain favorable trade deals in the country's rich natural resources. The author concludes that free from any effective pressure, "the Myanmarese military regime can continue to thumb its nose at the world."

China, one of the major ASEAN countries, does not support sanctions against Myanmar's military junta. India, once a supporter of Aung San Suu Ky's democratic movement, recently joined its ASEAN partners, China and Thailand in economic trade agreements with Myanmar's junta. Only Japan canceled its gas and oil contracts with Myanmar, joining the US and EU in their pro-democratic campaign. Ironically, Chevron Corp, a US oil-giant stated it will keep its natural-gas project in the country even if that means losing US government tax benefits. (Bloomberg)

Global warming and ice melting effects generate access to a part of the Arctic seabed that contains billions of tones of oil, gas and precious metals. In the Arctic Circle, a new resource-driven conflict arises, as Arctic countries struggle to partake in the exploitation. Russia will file a claim by the end of 2007 to the United Nations in order to guarantee a share of this space. According to the UN Law of the Sea treaty, any country that wants to claim a greater share of the sea to its coastline must submit a request to the UN's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. (Reuters)

A 1990 agreement between Uganda and DR Congo declared joint ownership and exploitation of oil fields that extend across their shared border. Several violent incidents and the concentration of Ugandan forces in its western Rwenzori border region have led the heads of the Ugandan and Congolese forces to issue a joint communiqué, promoting political solutions to these border clashes. But Uganda "reserves the right of self defense", and private military company Executive Outcome's contracts to guard Congolese mines add to the militarized nature of resource exploitation at the border. (Daily Monitor- Kampala)

The US-China showdown over African oil has led the Pentagon to establish an African Command (AFRICOM) branch of the military. US-friendly African armies, for example in Congo and West Africa, have absorbed AFRICOM into their command structures, thereby increasing US military presence on the continent. In addition, because the US cannot outbid China on oil dollar for dollar, it implicated China in the Darfur crisis, therefore undermining Chinese investments in Sudan and promoting UN intervention there. According to Professor Vijay Prashad, such oil-based international intervention in Africa will only "create an Iraq" there. (Frontline)

With reserves of oil and natural gas becoming increasingly scarce and their extraction more expensive, Der Spiegel highlights the impact on the foreign policies of powerful states and on local communities in oil-rich areas. Governments turn a blind eye to human rights abuses and anti-democratic practices to form strategic alliances over control of the natural resources they see as of "existential strategic significance." Many large states have ambitions on the dwindling supplies of oil and gas. This article underlines the potential for conflict in the various pacts and deals formed to gain control.

China's pursuit for oil in the Middle East will put it on a collision course with US interests in the region, analysts have warned. China relies heavily on the Middle East for oil, importing up to 43% of its total imports from fields in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Sudan. By 2015, up to 70% of China's oil imports will be from the Middle East, through seas currently controlled by the US Navy. US analysts have also expressed concern at China's strategy of buying from states that Washington has long opposed. (al-Jazeera)

The North-South and Darfur crises in Sudan stem and intensify from oil conflict, yet the US and European media largely ignore this "invisible war," says author David Morse. Writing in TomDispatch, Morse points to the Bush administration's "schizophrenic stance" — namely the labeling of the situation as genocide and then quietly lobbying against international action — as one example of how Sudan and other African countries fall victim to the developed world's greed for oil.

Michael Klare warns of the impending oil decline, using a Chinese oil company's bid for US-based Unocal and a US-government sponsored "oil shockwave" war game to bring up the willingness of nations, especially the US, to use force to protect oil interests. But no amount of force in these "resource wars" can save the world from global economic crisis when output cannot match rising demand. In this TomDispatch article, Klare offers a valid solution -a quick transition to alternative fuels - but leaves out the answers on how this is possible and whether it will actually happen before its too late. (TomDispatch)

This table lists US military presence in oil-producing countries. It lists main or potential petroleum or crude oil import sources, oil transit routes and actual or potential US presence in these countries. (Foreign Policy in Focus)

In an excerpt from Oil: Anatomy of an Industry the author argues that US troop redeployment is not about "fighting terrorism" and "ensuring global stability" but "making sure no one messes with American access to global energy resources." Considering the unstable nature of oil-rich regions and a less-than-favorable international climate, America may get the oil it needs, but at what cost? (Salon.com)

The Washington Post argues that rising demand for oil will lead to new conflicts in the 21st century as states compete for the fuels needed to feed citizens, defend borders and maintain economies. Such conflicts will divert attention and resources from "long-term energy challenges" such as developing alternative fuels.

China's growing demand for oil is reshaping the relationship between the world's two largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia. With both countries desiring to maintain high global oil prices, the two have pursued closer political ties and increased diplomatic co-operation. This collaboration illustrates how the big powers' demand for oil can indirectly transform global power structures. ( Power and Interest News Report)