Monitoring Policy Making at the United Nations |
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Report: War and Occupation in Iraq
Chapter 8:
By Global Policy Forum and partners
Diplacement and Mortality
April 2007
“..we will help you to build a new Iraq that is prosperous and free.”
- US President Georges W. Bush *The invasion of Iraq by the US Coalition in March 2003 caused many civilian casualties, but it did not create a major humanitarian crisis or set off mass migration. Soon, though, counter-insurgency operations, including massive attacks on cities like Falluja, Najaf and Tel Afar, led to substantially increased mortality and large displacement, affecting hundreds of thousands of people.[1] Unemployment and poverty rose sharply, too, as state institutions deteriorated or collapsed. Beginning in 2006, sectarian clashes worsened and inter-communal violence led to rising death and injury, as well as massive new displacement. The international relief system has not been able to respond to the growing humanitarian challenges. Humanitarian NGOs have long since withdrawn and donor governments have stayed away. International relief agencies have themselves faced serious problems in reaching Iraqis at risk and mobilizing funds for the deepening emergency.[2]
Displacement
Violence and increasing poverty have created an unparalleled movement of population in Iraq.[3] In April 2007, well over 4 million Iraqis had been displaced, about 14% of the total national population. Of that number, about 1.9 million Iraqis were internally displaced and over 2.2 million had migrated to other countries.[4] UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, has spoken of its “growing concerns over the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation facing hundreds of thousands of displaced Iraqis, both within and outside their country.”[5] The refugee agency expects many vulnerable people who have still not fled to leave their homes in the near future as violence and inter-communal strife continue to rise.[6] Large numbers are in urgent need of aid, food and shelter. The scale of the problem and the difficulty of reaching the displaced people put very heavy pressure on the international relief system.
Coalition Operations
Since 2003, many Iraqis have been displaced by US Coalition military operations. These operations, which have included intense aerial and ground bombardment, have forced residents to leave in large numbers. More than 200,000 were displaced during the attacks on Falluja during 2004,[7] while hundreds of thousands more have been displaced in other city attacks. Many families have been unable to return, due to the ongoing insecurity, recurrent military offensives, lack of water, electricity and health services, and because their homes and places of business are ruined.[8] According to an estimate by the Falluja Reconstruction Project, about 65,000 people from that city were still displaced in early 2006.[9]
Sectarian Violence
In 2006, while military operations continue to force people from their homes, the main cause for displacement has shifted towards sectarian violence, particularly in Baghdad. The UNHCR estimates that some 730,000 people have been displaced due to sectarian violence since the attack on the Samarra Al-Askari shrine between February 2006 and March 2007.[10] Iraqis have been threatened because of their religious affiliation or professions. Sectarian militias and armed groups have attacked mosques, markets and villages of rivals. Mixed neighborhoods are increasingly polarized.
Minorities and Professionals
Minority communities are especially at risk. Reports suggest that religious persecution has led to the displacement of Christians, Turkmens, Assyrians and Saben-Mandeans, among others. The Sabean-Mandeans, a very old community, has dwindled from 13,500 in 2001 to roughly 4,000 in 2006.[11] Half of the 1.5 million Assyrians living in Iraq before 2003 have left the country and the remaining 750,000 are moving into “safe areas” in Zakho and North Ninevah.[12] Many Christians have been leaving for Syria and Jordan; a significant number has also sought refuge in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.[13]
Palestinians refugees on the Syrian border
Photo credit: Christian Peacemaker TeamsPalestinian refugees in Iraq are facing very difficult living conditions, and are subject to repeated threats and attacks. Palestinian media sources report that there have been over 655 attacks against Palestinians, killing at least 186.[14] Palestinians in Baghdad are extremely fearful for their lives and have expressed their wish to leave as soon as possible.[15] But for many Palestinians leaving Iraq is not an option, as they are no longer in possession of valid travel documents.[16] UNHCR estimates that about 850 Palestinians from Iraq are trapped at the border with Syria.[17] A group of 365 has been living in a no man’s land between the borders of Iraq and Syria, refusing to return to Iraq and having been refused entry by the Syrian government.[18] Neighboring countries like Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Syria refuse to admit them[19] and going back to the Palestinian territories is not an option. Only about 15, 000 of an estimated 34,000 Palestinians formerly in Iraq remain in the country.[20]
Many professionals have been targeted because of their work. This includes academics, educators, professors, doctors, journalists, politicians, lawyers and judges.[21] Many have been arrested, kidnapped, killed or forced to flee to protect their lives and their families. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Health, 102 doctors and 164 nurses have been killed between April 2003 and May 2006, and some 250 Iraqi doctors have been kidnapped in the past two years.[22] According to the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index, 2000 Iraqi physicians have been killed and about 12,000 have left the country since 2003.[23] The negative effect of violence on professionals has substantially affected educational, judicial and health care systems in the country.
IDPs
An estimated 730,000 Iraqis fled their homes for other parts of Iraq since the Samarra bombings and UNHCR now estimates that the pace has increased to 50,000 per month.[24]
Most of these “internally displaced persons,” or IDPs, have sought refuge with relatives, or in mosques, empty public buildings, or tent camps.[25] With limited access to food, health services, education and employment, IDPs live in very poor conditions.[26] Public buildings are particularly unsanitary, often overcrowded, without access to clean water, proper sanitation and basic services, in conditions especially conducive to infectious diseases.[27] In addition, occupants are constantly under threat of being evicted without being provided alternative accommodation. Those living in camps often have to choose between being located away from military operations or other targets, or being near education and health facilities.
Families and acquaintances have supported their displaced relatives and shared their limited supplies. But this has created a “rising tension between families over scarce resources” according to UNHCR. [28]
Humanitarian agencies are facing great difficulties in assisting IDPs. UN operations are mostly managed from Amman and Kuwait. The lack of security and military-imposed restrictions has prevented access to those in need of assistance and protection. Coalition forces have denied access of local aid groups to displaced communities.[29] Aid groups are also subject to intimidation from militias for helping displaced families of other religious backgrounds.[30]
Refugees in Neighboring Countries
In addition to the 1.9 million IDPs, over 2.2 millions Iraqis have sought refuge in other countries. At least 1.2 million Iraqis have fled to Syria, and an estimated 750,000 to Jordan. In addition, there are over 100,000 Iraqi refugees in Egypt, 54,000 in Iran, 40,000 in Lebanon, 10,000 in Turkey, about 200,000 in the Gulf States and around 200,000 have moved to Europe, Northern America and New Zealand.[31] A UNHCR report shows that asylum applications by Iraqis in industrialized countries rose by 77 percent in 2006, becoming the leading country of asylum seekers in 2006.[32]
In neighboring countries, tensions are rising as public services are overwhelmed by the rising number of refugees. Syria has become more restrictive. It now charges for health care and has reduced entry visas from six to three months, forcing refugees to exit the country for renewal.[33] Lebanon has closed its borders to Iraqi refugees and Lebanese authorities have increased arrests for illegal presence, forcing refugees to choose between prison and deportation.[34] Jordan, worried about risks of instability, has tightened its immigration rules, now requiring Iraqis to be in possession of a new type of passport.[35] The new measure has increased the feeling of insecurity experienced by many Iraqis in Jordan. Amman had already closed its borders to young men, obliging families to separate, [36] and made it difficult for Iraqi children to access public schools.[37] Refugees International reports that in certain cases border officials have issued transit visas that expire after a few days, leaving Iraqis subject to deportation.[38]
Long-Term Crisis and Broader Consequences
Hundreds of thousands of displaced Iraqis – both within and outside the country - are in dire need of assistance, for shelter, healthcare, education, legal aid, food and medicine. UNHCR predicts that Iraq’s humanitarian crisis will last for years.[39] The UN agency is particularly concerned that displacement will persist over time, foreseeing that for most of the IDPs, “this is not a temporary” but a “permanent displacement.”[40] This displacement has consequences beyond the country’s borders, affecting Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Iran and other countries outside the region.
In January 2007, UNHCR launched a $60 million appeal to fund its programs for the year,[41] a significant increase from the $29 million of 2006. Yet, “even US$60 million does not go very far,”[42] warned Andrew Harper, Senior Operations Manager for UNHCR’s Iraq Operation Unit. Addressing Iraq’s total humanitarian needs in the long-term would range in the “hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars,” he added. “This is a [humanitarian] operation that is going to have to go on for years.”[43]
Mortality
Iraq's death rate has substantially increased since the invasion. Demographic surveys, body counts using daily news reports, data from morgues and hospitals, and epidemiological studies – all show that Iraq's population has paid a steep price. Large numbers of people have been deprived of the right to life since March 2003.
Studies
The US and the UK governments have publicly insisted that they “don’t do body counts,” and thus have no reliable estimates of Iraqi civilian or military deaths.[44] Several studies have nonetheless sought to measure Iraq’s mortality during the occupation:
Iraqi Ministry of Health figures for bodies brought to morgues and hospitals;[45]The 2004 and 2006 Hopkins surveys are the only two studies designed exclusively to scrutinize trends in overall mortality in Iraq since the invasion.[53] For example, the ILCS study was designed to analyze general living conditions in Iraq. As part of the findings, the survey included a question on deaths in households, which concluded that 24,000 war-related deaths occurred between March 2003 and April 2004.[54] UNAMI bi-monthly reports cover a wide range of issues affecting human rights in Iraq, including the number of civilian deaths imputable to violence during the two months covered.UNAMI bi-monthly human rights reports, which provide figures based on “the number of casualties compiled by the Iraqi Ministry of Health from hospitals throughout the country and the Medico-Legal Institute in Baghdad”;[46]
US Department of Defense quarterly reports to Congress, which provide rough counts of average numbers of Iraqis killed and wounded;[47]
Iraq Body Count, an independent and public database of civilian deaths reported in English-language news sources; [48]
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, a website compiling mainly Coalition casualties, but also Iraqis death, based on a compilation of reports by news agencies;[49]
“Iraq Living Conditions Survey” (ILCS),[50] a study by the UN Development Programme measuring living conditions in Iraq between April 2002 and April 2004;
Two surveys carried out by Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health published in The Lancet, Britain’s most respected medical journal. The first study[51] appeared in 2004 and estimated excess deaths between March 2003 and September 2004. The most recent Hopkins study[52] was published in October 2006 and covered the much longer period from March 2003 to June 2006.
Both of the Hopkins studies have aroused controversy because their estimates were high, and because they identified Coalition violence as responsible for a large proportion of the deaths. The first Hopkins study estimated that about 98,000 excess deaths (deaths above the pre-2003 mortality rate) had occurred in the 18 month period from March 2003 to September 2004. The report concluded that “violence was the primary cause of death” since the invasion and “mainly attributed [it] to Coalition forces.”[55] The survey's results would have shown even higher mortality levels had the research team not excluded a sample cluster in Falluja that found an exceptionally high number of violent deaths – even before the second and most lethal attack on the city in November 2004.[56]
The second Hopkins study estimated that 655,000 excess deaths had occurred during the occupation from March 2003 through June 2006: a shockingly high number.[57] The survey was based on a large sample of 1,849 households in 47 different, randomly-selected “clusters” representing all regions of the country. The survey asked respondents about deaths in the family and verified responses by asking for death certificates, which were produced in 92 percent of cases when requested.[58] The study’s conclusions showed an increase in violent deaths overall, and a proportional shift toward violence by actors other than Coalition forces. However, Coalition violence continued to account for the largest reported proportional source of violence – 31% of all deaths.[59]
Unsurprisingly, both Hopkins studies have been hotly contested by the White House, Downing Street and many other defenders of the war and occupation. President Bush dismissed the second study out of hand, saying: “I do not consider it a credible report. Neither does General Casey and neither do Iraqi officials.”[60] When asked later about the report, the president stated that the number of those who had died in Iraq during the occupation had been “30,000, more or less,” giving no evidence for this figure.[61] White House spokesman Scott McClellan later announced that the number quoted by the president was “not an official government estimate.”[62] Other critics, including some opposed to the occupation, have questioned the plausibility and methodology of the Hopkins survey. The have asked questions, for example, about the sample selection and whether the interviewers had sufficient time to ask all their questions and obtain informed consent from interviewees. [See Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks, “Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: were valied and ethical field methods used in this survey,” Households in Conflict Network, Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex, 2006]
The authors of the report have extensively defended their study and have pointed out that the US State Department has favorably used conflict mortality surveys by the same investigators, using the same methodology.[63] Many experts in epidemiology, public health, and statistics at leading institutions, including the UK's Department for International Development, have stated that this survey was well-constructed and reliable, and that in spite of difficult circumstances it is highly credible.[64] The Chief scientific adviser of the British Ministry of Defence, Sir Roy Anderson, defended the study design as being “robust” and affirmed the survey's methods were “close to best practice.”[65]
This is not the place to rehearse further the debates about the Hopkins studies, but it is clear that alternative sources such as Iraq Body Count, the UNDP study, and the statistics published bi-monthly by UNAMI cannot be directly compared, as they gathered numbers of deaths in different ways, and counted different groups of people. Iraq Body Count, for example, only counts non-combatants killed in the fighting and reported in at least two English-language news sources.[66] As of January 2007, IBC estimates that between 54,000 and 60,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed by Coalition military operations. UNAMI figures are based on morgue counts and information provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Health. In its November-December 2006 Human Rights Report, UNAMI estimates that over 34,000 civilians have been killed during the year 2006, bringing the yearly average of civilian deaths to 94 every day.[67] Such methods of “passive surveillance” are useful, but provide data that are generally incomplete, especially during conflicts, and thus probably undercount the true number of deaths, as Iraq Body Count and other passive surveillance efforts themselves insist.[68] In addition, UNAMI and UNDP studies have covered much shorter time periods.
Critics have used the divergent estimates to argue that the studies’ results are inconsistent. But all these estimates reflect high and rising mortality trends every year of the occupation. Whether the number for the 39 month period is 655,000 or 500,000, or even less, the overwhelming reality is that the occupying forces have failed to protect Iraqi civilians from violence under their Geneva Convention obligations.[69] Not a single published mortality statistic shows that the well-being of the Iraqi people has improved since the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Causes of Death
Lack of data makes it difficult to know precisely the causes of the increased deaths in post-war Iraq – including such factors as armed conflict, damaged infrastructure, limited access to food and water, disease, and internal displacement. The 2003 war destroyed vital infrastructure for water, food and sanitation, already weakened by the 1991 Gulf War and thirteen years of sanctions.[70] However, armed violence is clearly the leading cause of excess death since 2003, whether from the Coalition’s military operations, insurgent operations, or – especially more recently – violence of armed sectarian militias, death squads and criminal gangs. UNAMI's report for September-October 2006, for example, notes “a large number of indiscriminate and targeted killings.”[71] UNAMI further reports that according to the Iraqi Ministry of Health, 7,054 civilians were violently killed [during the period] with no less than 4,984 in Baghdad, most of them as a result of gunshot wounds.”[72]
The disintegration of Iraq’s health system has been an aggravating factor. The Iraqi medical services, once amongst the finest in the region, have declined to such an extent that they can no longer meet the needs of the population. According to an article in the British Journal of Medicine, “more than half” of those who die in Iraq's hospitals might have been saved if trained staff were available and hospital conditions were sufficient.[73] Many Iraqi physicians have left the country due to the security crisis,[74] leaving hospitals under-staffed or staffed with doctors “who do not have the proper experience or skills to manage emergency cases.”[75] Hospitals and clinics also lack basic medical supplies, including equipments and drugs.[76] The US announced early in the occupation that it would rebuild and re-equip Iraq’s hospitals and primary care clinics. But delays, bad planning and corruption-riddled reconstruction projects have failed to deliver on this promise.[77]
Conclusion
Iraq faces a growing humanitarian emergency. As of April 2007, the United Nations estimated that up to 8 million people were vulnerable and in need of immediate assistance. [78] Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been forced to flee from their homes and hundreds of thousands more are casualties of the violence through death and injury. Education has broken down. [79] Unemployment has reached about 60% [80] and the annual inflation rate peaked at about 70% in July 2006 . [81] An estimated 54% of the Iraqi population lives below the poverty line on less than a dollar a day, among which 15% live in extreme poverty. [82] The public health system is weak and losing capacity. [83] Electricity is in short supply. [84] Only 32% of Iraqis have access to clean drinking water . [85] The Public Distribution System food ration has stopped functioning in certain areas of the country, leaving 4 million Iraqis acutely vulnerable due to food insecurity. [86] Severe malnutrition doubled between 2003 and 2005. [87] Iraq 's humanitarian emergency has reached a crisis level that compares with some of the world's most urgent calamities.
Footnotes
[*]White House , Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation, The Cross Hall (March 17, 2003)
[1]See Chapter on Cities of this report for details on the displacements.
[2]See for example UNHCR, “Iraq Displacement,” (November 3, 2006)
[3]UNAMI Human Rights Report, (September-October 2006) p.3
[4]UNHCR, Statistics on Displaced Iraqis around the World (April 2007)
[5]Ron Redmont, UNHCR Spokesperson at Press Briefing on Iraq Displacement (October 13, 2006)
[6]UNHCR, Iraq: A Humanitarian Crisis that Will Go for Years (February 2, 2007) UNHCR predicts that 2.4 to 2.7 million Iraqis will be displaced by the end of 2007.
[7]United Nations, Emergency Working Group -- Falluja Crisis, “Update Note” (November 13, 2004)
[8]Internal Displacement Monitoring Center/Norwegian Refugee Council, Iraq: Sectarian Violence, Military Operations Spark New Displacement, as Humanitarian Access Deteriorates (May 23, 2006)
[9]Cited in: UN Integrated Regional Information Networks, “Iraq: Fallujah Situation Improving Slowly” (March 21, 2006)
[10]UNHCR, Press Briefing by UNHCR Spokesperson Ron Redmond (March 20, 2007)
[11]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September-October 2006) p.13
[12]UNAMI Human Rights Report (November-December 2006) p.13
[13]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September-October 2006) p.13
[14]UNHCR Iraq: UNHCR Deeply Disturbed By Security Forces Raid In Palestinian Area (March 16, 2007)
[15]UNHCR, UNHCR Appeals to Countries to Provide Humanitarian Solution for Palestinians Fleeing Iraq (December 14, 2006)
[16]UNAMI Human Rights Report, (September-October 2006) p.14
[17]UNHCR Iraq: UNHCR Deeply Disturbed By Security Forces Raid In Palestinian Area (March 16, 2007)
[18]UNHCR, Palestinians in Iraq: More Fleeing, Statement by Jennifer Pagonis (January 30, 2007)
[19]Human Rights Watch, Nowhere to Flee: The Perilous Situation of Palestinians in Iraq (September 2006)
[20]UNHCR, UNHCR Appeals to Countries to Provide Humanitarian Solution for Palestinians Fleeing Iraq (December 14, 2006)
[21]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September-October 2006)
[22]UNAMI Human Rights Report ( May-June 2006) p.6
[23]Brookings Institutions, Iraq Index (March 19, 2007) p.40
[24]UNHCR, Press Briefing by UNHCR Spokesperson Ron Redmond (March 20, 2007)
[25]UNAMI Human Rights Report (July-August 2006) p.13
[26]International Medical Corps, Iraqis on the Move: Sectarian Displacement in Baghdad (January 2007)
[27]Internal Displacement Monitoring Center/Norwegian Refugee Council, Iraq: Sectarian Violence, Military Operations Spark New Displacement, as Humanitarian Access Deteriorates (May 23, 2006)
[28]UNHCR Briefing Notes (November 3, 2006)
[29]Internal Displacement Monitoring Center/Norwegian Refugee Council, Iraq: Sectarian Violence, Military Operations Spark New Displacement, as Humanitarian Access Deteriorates (May 23, 2006)
[30]UNAMI Report (July-August 2006)
[31] UNHCR, Statistics on Displaced Iraqis around the World (April 2007)
[32]UNHCR, Asylum Levels and Trends in Industrialised Countries, 2006 (March 23, 2007)
[33]Refugees International, Iraqi Refugee Crisis: International Response Urgently Needed (December 5, 2006)
[34]Ibid.
[35]The new “G” passports are difficult to obtain, since they have only been issued since 2006 and must be picked up in Baghdad. “Jordan Tightens Iraqi Immigration” BBC (February 28, 2007)
[36]Refugees International, Iraqi Refugee Crisis: International Response Urgently Needed (December 5, 2006)
[37]UNHCR Update on the Iraq Situation (November 2006)
[38]Refugees International, Iraqi Refugee Crisis: International Response Urgently Needed (December 5, 2006)
[39]UN News, “Iraq Faces Dire And Long-Term Humanitarian Crisis, Un Official Warns” (February 5, 2007)
[40]UNHCR, Q&A: Iraq: A Humanitarian Operation that Will Go on for Years. Interview with Andrew Harper, Senior Operations Manager for UNHCR’s Iraq Operation Unit. (February 2, 2007)
[41]UNHCR, Supplemental Appeal Iraq Situation Response (January 2007)
[42]UNHCR, Q&A: Iraq: A Humanitarian Operation that Will Go on for Years. Interview with Andrew Harper, Senior Operations Manager for UNHCR’s Iraq Operation Unit. (February 2, 2007)
[43]Ibid.
[44]E.g. Written answer by Kim Howells MP, UK Foreign Office Minister, House of Commons (December 13, 2005); written answer by Bill Rammell MP, UK Foreign Office Minister, House of Commons (January 11, 2005); Pentagon officials quoted in Helen Thomas, “Who's Counting the Dead in Iraq” Miami Herald (September 5, 2003). N.B. The Pentagon has released figures for the number of Iraqi civilians and soldiers killed and wounded by insurgents alone between January 2004 and October 2005 (25,902), but their source has not been given: Sabrina Tavernise, “US Military Now Quietly Tracking Iraqi Deaths” New York Times (October 30, 2005)
It has also released rough counts of average numbers of Iraqis killed and wounded in a quarterly accounting report mandated by Congress, reporting that daily averages of dead and wounded Iraqi civilians, soldiers and police officers rose from 26 a day in 2004 to almost 120 a day in August 2006 (US Department of Defense, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq)
[45]The publication of official Iraqi estimates has been quite political. In April 2007, UNAMI publicly deplored the fact that the Iraqi of Health stopped providing mortality figures to the United Nations without any substantive explanation or justification. After the publication of the preceding UNAMI report, the office of Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki accused the Untied Nations of exaggerating the figures – an accusation strongly rejected by the United Nations which insists the figures “were in fact official figures compiled and provided by a government ministry.” See UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p. 5
[46]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September 1-October 31, 2006)
[47]US Department of Defense reports to Congress, submitted pursuant to the section entitled “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” of House Conference Report 109-72 accompanying H.R. 1268, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, the Global War on Terror, and Tsunami Relief, 2005, Public Law 109-13.
[48]Iraq Body Count, http://www.iraqbodycount.net
[49]Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx
[50]“Iraq Living Conditions Survey” (2004). The study was carried out by Iraq's Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT) with the assistance of the UN Development Programme and the Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies.
[51]Roberts L, Lafta R, Garfield R, Khudhairi J, Burnham G “Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey” The Lancet - Vol. 364, Issue 9448, (November 20, 2004) Pages 1857-1864
[52]Burnham G, Lafta R, Doocy S, Roberts L, “Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: a Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey” The Lancet - Vol. 368, Issue 9545 (October 21, 2006) Pages 1421-1428
[53] Iraq Analysis Group, Other Mortality Estimates
[54]UNDP, “Iraq Living Conditions Survey” (2004) Volume II, p. 55
[55]Roberts L, Lafta R, Garfield R, Khudhairi J, Burnham G “Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey” The Lancet - Vol. 364, Issue 9448, (November 20, 2004) Pages 1857-1864
[56] Ibid.
[57]Burnham G, Lafta R, Doocy S, Roberts L, “Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: a Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey” The Lancet - Vol. 368, Issue 9545 (October 21, 2006) Pages 1421-1428
[58]Ibid.
[59]Ibid.
[60]White House, Press Conference by the President (October 11, 2006)
[61]Peter Baker, “Bush Estimates Iraqi Death Toll in War at 30,000” Washington Post (December 12, 2005)
[62]Cited in “Bush: Iraqi Democracy Making Progress” CNN (December 12, 2005)
[63]Medialens, Burying the Lancet – Part 2 (September 6, 2005)
[64] Iraq Analysis Group, Reactions to the Study: What have scientific experts said about the study?
[65]Cited in Owen Bennett-Jones, “Iraqi Deaths Survey Was Robust” BBC (March 26, 2007)
[66]Iraq Body Count
[67]UNAMI Human Rights Report (November – December 2006)
[68]IBC states that “What we are attempting to provide is a credible compilation of civilian deaths that have been reported by recognized sources. Our maximum therefore refers to reported deaths - which can only be a sample of true deaths unless one assumes that every civilian death has been reported. It is likely that many if not most civilian casualties will go unreported by the media.”
See also the statement by Iraq Coalition Casualty Count and Iraq Analysis Group, Why Is the Number of Deaths Found By the Lancet so much Larger than Other Estimates Commonly Quoted?
[69] Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, Geneva, 12 August 1949, Article 27: “Protected persons...shall at all times be humanely treated, and shall be protected especially against all acts of violence or threats thereof”
[70] Burnham G, Lafta R, Doocy S, Roberts L, “Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: a Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey” The Lancet - Vol. 368, Issue 9545 (October 21, 2006) Appendix E: Health in Iraq
[71]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September – October 2006)
[72]UNAMI Human Rights Report (September – October 2006)
[73]Bassim Irheim Mohammed Al Sheibani, Najah R Hadi and Tariq Hasoon, “Iraq Lacks Facilities and Expertise in Emergency Medicine” British Medical Journal (October 21, 2006)
[74]See Medact, Iraq Health Update (Spring 2006)
[75]Bassim Irheim Mohammed Al Sheibani, Najah R Hadi and Tariq Hasoon, op.cit.
[76]Medact, Iraq Health Update (Spring 2006)
[77]See Chapter 10 on Corruption
[78]UN Country Team, cited in UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.20 [79] International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Iraq: Response to Humanitarian Crisis (February 12, 2007)
[80]UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.21. Also see James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton et al. “The Iraq Study Group Report” Vintage Books, New York (December 2006) p. 23
[81]Iraq 's Central Office for Statistics (COASIT) (August 2006), as cited in UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.21
[82]UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.20
[83]Medact , Iraq Health Update (Spring 2006); UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.20; International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Iraq: Response to Humanitarian Crisis (April 2, 2007)
[84]According to US Department of State's Weekly Iraq Status (January 17, 2007), “during the week of January 11-17 electricity availability averaged 4.4 hours per day in Baghdad and 7.7 hours nationwide.”
[85]Government of Iraq/UNICEF 2007-2010 Country Program Action Plan , as cited in UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.21. Also see International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Iraq: Response to Humanitarian Crisis (February 12, 2007)
[86]UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.20. Also see World Food Programme , Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis in Iraq (May 11, 2006) and UNAMI, Cluster 6: Food Security
[87]UNAMI Human Rights Report (January – March 2007) p.20. Also see World Food Programme , Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis in Iraq (May 11, 2006) and UNAMI, Cluster 6: Food Security
More Information on Iraq
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