Global Policy Forum

By Paul Richter and Greg Miller

After struggling for months to talk other nations into helping oust Saddam Hussein, President Bush is beginning to use terms they might find easier to understand: cash, weapons, business deals and favors.

Bush's speech Thursday at the United Nations marked the start of intense behind-the-scenes negotiations to see what inducements will help convert countries that so far have been balking, at least publicly, at joining the anti-Hussein campaign.

U.S. officials expect the Turks to ask for weapons and debt relief, the Russians and French for access to Iraqi oilfield business, the Qataris for cash to build an air base, and the Jordanians for guarantees of oil and trade. Officials expect many other countries to join the horse trading, and predict that they won't be shy.

"Countries in the Middle East take the bazaari approach," said Danielle Pletka, a former Senate aide who now works at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. "Once they know we want to buy ... the sky's the limit." Said a senior congressional aide, "This is a great time to step forward and get something you want from the United States."

The administration's initial focus will be on members of the United Nations Security Council, notably Russia, France and China, officials say. Their backing will be important soon, as the United States tries to persuade the council to enforce resolutions demanding that Iraq abandon its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs.

But U.S. officials will also try to persuade many other countries in the Middle East and farther afield to cooperate with a military campaign, or at least to temper their opposition.

The Pentagon still needs to win commitments from countries near Iraq for use of military bases and overflight rights.

The effort mirrors U.S. coalition-building before the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and before the U.S. assault last fall on the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Yet this job promises to be considerably tougher, because many nations are skeptical of the need for war, and the United States doesn't have access to the billions of dollars that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others contributed to the 1991 Persian Gulf War campaign.

"The horse trading will be much more difficult this time," predicted Edward S. Walker Jr., a former assistant secretary of State for the Middle East who is now president of the Middle East Institute.

"Part of what you've been seeing is people making a public display of opposition that will increase the price," he said.

Most countries resent any suggestion that their support can be bought. These countries insist that such deals are needed simply to reduce the economic costs and political risks of cooperation.

Turkish officials were furious last winter when former Clinton political guru Dick Morris declared on American TV that the U.S. had bought their nation's military cooperation over time by pressing for a generous International Monetary Fund loan program.

"They were outraged," said Bulent Aliriza, a Turkish expert and former specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It's precisely the wrong image."

Turkey's strategic location and frequent cooperation have made it America's most important military partner in the region. The Turks contend that their participation this time would add a huge burden at a time when their country is trying to cope with crushing economic problems. They are also deeply worried that war with Iraq might lead to an independent Kurdish state that would threaten their own eastern territory.

Accordingly, they have a long wish list, including advanced weapons, relief on their $5-billion debt to the U.S. for weapons purchases, and help from the United States in ensuring that Turkey continues to receive IMF credits, U.S. officials say. Some Turkish officials have also pressed the United States to ensure that any military campaign doesn't take place in the summer, when it could damage the country's tourist industry.

Turkish officials argue that their country has lost more than $40 billion in revenue by cooperating with the United States during the Persian Gulf War and the sanctions against Iraq since.

Turkey stepped in under U.S. pressure this year to lead the international peacekeeping force in Afghanistan. Congress recently appropriated $228 million to cover Turkey's costs there.

Russia has made little secret of the importance that economics will have in winning its cooperation. Moscow has told U.S. officials that it wants any new Baghdad government to honor Iraq's approximately $8-billion debt to Russia. The Russians also want assurances that any successor government will allow Russian companies to keep their large share of the Iraqi oil business, and to get a piece of the business that develops in the new Iraq.

Although State Department officials insist that the U.S. government has made no commitments, Alexander Vershbow, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, told reporters this week that Moscow's investments in Iraq would be "better protected under new leadership."

Russia has yet to receive "a single kopek" of the billions in debt, he noted.

Another demand may be Washington's silence on Russia's planned $1-billion nuclear power plant for Iran. After years of complaining that the project posed a nuclear proliferation threat, the White House has recently lowered the volume.

Russia's arrangement with the United States could involve an important non-financial issue: Washington might have signaled that it will give the Kremlin a free hand against Chechen separatists, including those taking refuge in U.S.-allied Georgia. Publicly, however, the State Department told wire services that the U.S. would oppose unilateral Russian military action inside Georgia.

President Vladimir V. Putin seemed to be preparing fellow Russians for a reversal of the Kremlin's rejection of military action against Iraq when he proclaimed that Russia had the right to attack Chechen bases in Georgia to do its part in the war against terrorism.

In France, an official denied that President Jacques Chirac's government would seek any financial deal as part of an agreement to join the United States.

"Our focus on Iraq is about disarmament, not about access to oilfields if there's a new government," the official said. Yet a U.S. official noted that the French complained often that after the Gulf War, French companies were not included in the rebuilding of the Kuwaiti oilfields, as they had been promised. He said American officials expect to hear from France on this issue before long.

"We're still in the process of establishing positions, before the French get to their dollar value," the U.S. official said.

It is not clear whether China will ask the United States to protect its small but growing business stake in Iraq, or provide other help. China is not expected to directly support a U.S. campaign; the question is how vocal and obstructive the Communist nation might be.

In exchange for not loudly opposing U.S. action in Iraq, Beijing will probably press for satisfaction on its biggest diplomatic concern: Taiwan. The issue will almost certainly come up during President Jiang Zemin's visit with Bush in Texas next month. China has been displeased with what it sees as a tilt toward Taiwan by the Bush administration.

Meanwhile, some foreign diplomats and experts see Iraq as the real reason the U.S. two weeks ago unexpectedly backed Beijing in its efforts against a separatist group in northwestern China, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. After resisting such action, the United States added the organization to its list of terrorist groups and backed China in adding the group to the U.N.'s terrorist list.

In the Middle East, Jordan, with a large population of Palestinians and a border with Iraq, is not expected to play a visible role in any attack on the Iraqi president. But the United States is eager to ensure Jordan's long-term stability, and it would probably take steps to ensure a continued supply of oil and other goods that the Jordanians now receive from Iraq.

The Egyptians, recipients of huge U.S. aid, would likely receive some additional assistance, even if they are not active participants in an attack. Syria may use the opportunity to press the United States for an important non-economic goal--return of the Golan Heights from Israel, a U.S. official said.

Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he was aware of pressure from countries such as Russia and France, and urged the White House to consider such requests.

"My own hope is that we would look at this," Lugar said. "That's the way the coalition is going to be built."