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Pakistan Turning Against General 'Busharraf' - Empire? - Global Policy Forum Pakistan Turning
Against General 'Busharraf'By Dexter Filkins
The New York Times
July 5, 2002
The man chosen by America to provide the local muscle in the U.S. campaign against terrorism is finding himself with hardly a friend at home.
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, who bet his future on a post-Sept. 11 alliance with the West, has lost considerable popular support as he has forced a series of drastic changes on this Islamic country at the behest of his foreign allies, according to recent interviews with dozens of Pakistanis.
Nine months after joining the Western coalition against terrorism, Musharraf, 58, is isolated in his own land, increasingly a figure of ridicule and the focus of a growing anti-Western fury that is shared by Islamic militants and the middle class alike.
The decline in Musharraf's fortunes represents an abrupt turnaround since last autumn, when he was hailed at home and in the West as a reform-minded Muslim leader in the mold of Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey and one of the general's personal heroes.
Musharraf's hold over the army and at least the upper echelons of Pakistan's powerful intelligence services is not in doubt, for now, and there appears to be no immediate threat to his power. But at no time since Sept. 11 has he appeared as isolated or vulnerable.
Musharraf's dutiful carrying out of Washington's demands is galvanizing a widespread feeling that he has largely traded away Pakistan's sovereignty to the United States; many see Pakistan's new policy toward Kashmir as the latest in a series of humiliations he has endured at U.S. hands. With FBI agents now joining in raids on suspected hideouts of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the anti-American sentiment here has reached a peak.
Indeed, Musharraf has become so closely identified with the Americans that he has even earned a nickname on Pakistan's streets: "Busharraf."
A nationwide referendum on his rule two months ago was regarded so widely as fraudulent that the general was forced to acknowledge his citizens' anger publicly.
His decision this spring to block the infiltration of Islamic fighters into the Indian-held part of Kashmir, while averting a war with India, is prompting threats of revenge from the militants.
"If America stops its support, Musharraf wouldn't last for a day," said Usman Majeed, 31, a businessman in Islamabad, echoing the sentiment of many middle-class Pakistanis. "Musharraf is doing all these unconstitutional things because he has America's support. But America is not our friend."
While no public opinion polls are available to judge Musharraf's performance, many anecdotal indicators, like his portrayal in the press and comments from political and business leaders around the country, suggest that public confidence in him has eroded markedly in recent months.
A vivid illustration of Musharraf's changing fortunes can be found in an influential Pakistani monthly, The Herald. After Musharraf's speech Jan. 12, when he proposed to turn the country away from militant Islam, he appeared on the magazine's cover, dressed in a white tunic and gesturing boldly under the headline "Musharraf's New Pakistan." A rare opinion poll at that time gave the general high marks.
Two months later he appeared on the cover again, his face bloated and sweating, hiding behind a mask of General Mohammed Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan's dictator in the 1980s, who is widely reviled for his brutality and for supporting the forces of militant Islam. The headline: "Games Dictators Play."
As his popularity ebbs, Musharraf is making efforts to shore up his rule.
Last week he announced that he was considering rewriting the constitution to give himself the power to dissolve Parliament and dismiss the prime minister in any future elected government. With the general widely expected to hold parliamentary elections in the fall, many analysts say he is setting the stage for an almost certain confrontation.
After Sept. 11, when President George W. Bush offered Musharraf the stark choice of helping the West or opposing it, he embarked on a bold course intended to lead this Islamic republic down a more moderate and secular path. He withdrew support for the Taliban, the militant Islamic group that ruled neighboring Afghanistan and which his country's intelligence agencies had helped to create. And he orchestrated a crackdown against militant Islamic groups that had long sent fighters to Afghanistan and Kashmir and were threatening to radicalize Pakistan itself.
At the time, Musharraf demonstrated a combination of boldness and agility that enabled him to prevail in the face of extraordinary pressures. He faced down his critics and outmaneuvered his enemies, particularly the Islamists within his army. To do that, he relied on the support of the vast majority of Pakistanis who share his vision of moderate Islam and who were willing to set aside their desires for a more democratic government.
But Musharraf's nimbleness now seems to have failed him, and the people have taken notice.
Musharraf's eroding fortunes present U.S. officials with a quandary: If they keep pushing the leader of Pakistan to help prosecute the campaign against terrorism and to avoid a potentially catastrophic war on the subcontinent, they may also contribute to his downfall.
At the very least, it seems likely that domestic pressures may force the general to balk at future U.S. demands, particularly insistence that he continue to shut down the flow of insurgents into Kashmir. Even in a country as vibrant as Pakistan, with a relatively free press and an outspoken populace, Musharraf need not fear a public rebellion yet. As long as the army remains unified behind him, he will probably be able to continue.
The concern among some Pakistanis, though, is that he may rule in a vacuum. As his support fades, he will feel less and less confident to make politically difficult choices. For now the more immediate danger is an attack by one of the many militant groups that have made the general their enemy. A Pakistani official said last week that suspected members of Al Qaeda imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay had told their interrogators of a plot to kill Musharraf for his perceived betrayal.
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