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More Wars Ahead, Americans Think - Empire? - Global Policy Forum More Wars Ahead, Americans Think
By Adam Nagourney and Janet Elder
New York Times
April 15, 2003
Americans say the Bush administration is now likely turn its military forces on North Korea, Syria and Iran, even as they express opposition to the policy of preemptive attack that President George W. Bush invoked in invading Iraq, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. The poll, taken during the weekend, found substantial evidence that Americans considered the Iraq conflict an overwhelming success, although they said that future interventions should be done as part of an international coalition.
A majority said that they would consider the war a victory even if Saddam Hussein remains alive or at large, and even if the United States fails to uncover caches of chemical or nuclear weapons, the rationale that Bush offered in pressing the invasion in the first place. In addition, there has been a sharp drop in the number of Americans who fear terrorist reprisal attacks in the United States because of the invasion and a jump in the number of Americans who say they believe the United States is winning the war on terrorism.
From a political perspective, the poll included a number of indications of the difficulties the Democratic Party faces in 2004 elections as it confronts the task of winning control of the White House and Congress.
The nation appears to be supportive of its president and confident of the state of the country: In one measure closely watched by pollsters measuring the strength of a sitting president, a majority of Americans say the country is heading in the right direction. There has, not unusually for a president at a time of war, been a jump in Bush's approval rating - it is now at 73 percent - while Americans overwhelmingly approve his handling of foreign affairs.
But there are also indications that at least as of now, the Democrats are not in as strong a position as many had hoped on the issue on which they hope to retake the White House - the economy. In fact, Americans are exactly divided, 42 percent to 42 percent, on which party would do a better job in managing the economy. And there has been a 7-point jump since January, to 54 percent, in the number of Americans who said they had confidence in Bush's ability to make the right decisions about the economy, even as they express concern about its performance under the president. The improving view of his capacity to manage the economy might be a function of the overall jump in Americans' view of him because of the battle in Iraq.
His father, at a similar point in 1991 after the last war in Iraq, also enjoyed relatively favorable marks for his own management of the economy. That perception swiftly deteriorated as memories of the war drifted and the economy turned down. Still, the result offers a red flag to Democrats who have been awaiting what they have argued would be a return of the debate to the economy, once the war is over, and thus put the Democratic Party back in the game.
The president's political advisers have long argued that any concerns that voters might have about the economy would be counterbalanced by a perception that Bush is a strong and grounded president. That perception, they argued, would be driven by his leadership of the war.
The Times/CBS News telephone poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, and involved 898 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll found that Americans do not believe that this chapter of an aggressive United States policing the world is over. About 6 in 10 said they thought it was very or somewhat likely that the success of the war in Iraq would prompt the United States to intervene in North Korea or Syria, while 3 in 10 said it was not very likely. Half foresaw a very or somewhat likely military intervention in Iran. The White House this week stepped up its verbal attacks on Syria, accusing it of harboring Iraqi fugitives.
But Americans have yet to embrace the tactical doctrine of preemption that Bush advanced in justifying the war in Iraq and, potentially, an invasion of Syria, North Korea or Iran. For example, 51 percent said that the United States should not invade another nation unless America is attacked first. And 48 percent said it was wrong for the United States to try to change a dictatorship to a democracy.
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