Global Policy Forum

US timetable driven by retirement of Bush's major ally, PM Tony Blair

By Michael Carmichael*

The Editor-in-Chief of the Arab Times reports that a "reliable source" in Washington has provided detailed information about the forthcoming US hard-power attack on Iran's nuclear and oil industries. According to the un-named sources cited in the Arab Times, the US timetable is being driven by the retirement of George Bush's major ally, Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The British Prime Minister sacrificed his own popularity to back Bush's wars in the Middle East. Politically weakened by his loyalty to Bush, Blair is publicly committed to step down from his office at Number Ten Downing Street from this May.

Applying the political calculus, sources informed the Arab Times that the month of April will be the most likely for the attack in order to allow Tony Blair to play a leading role in the western rationale for the escalation of the deeply unpopular war. Analysts working for the Bush-Cheney White House predict that a concerted military attack against Iranian targets will weaken the regime and lead to the toppling of the government of Syria, as well.

According to statements attributed to Vice President Dick Cheney in the Arab Times, the nation of Saudi Arabia is threatened territorially by the Iranian regime. Many Shias live inside Saudi Arabia with their heaviest population clusters in the oil producing regions. Last month, Cheney went to Riyadh for an extraordinary face-to-face meeting with King Abdullah. It is now obvious that the US plans to broaden the war by the "surge" and the forthcoming attack on Iran would have been a major topic of these private discussions.

In a separate statement, the highly respected US security expert, Col. Sam Gardiner (USAF retired) presents the sequence of tactical maneuvers that will unfold and precede the launch of the US military assault against targets in Iran - a project that Col. Gardiner deems to be an escalation by stealth leading to a broadening war in the Middle East.

An expert tactician, Col. Gardiner predicts,

As one of the last steps before a strike, we'll see USAF tankers moved to unusual places, like Bulgaria. These will be used to refuel the US-based B-2 bombers on their strike missions into Iran. When that happens, we'll only be days away from a strike"

In 2003, Bush and Cheney ordered the launch of the war in Iraq on the 18th and 19th of March. These dates now appear to fall within the window of opportunity for operational relevance with a heightened period of intensity running from mid-March through mid-April.

In the interim, we can expect to see an escalation of what Col. Gardiner and others have termed, perception management - the deliberate manufacture of propaganda by the Bush-Cheney government - a task that was briefly conducted by the Office of Strategic Influence that was established shortly after 9/11.

Ex-Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, closed the Office of Strategic Influence when the exposure of its blatant disinformation operations precipitated an international outrage. According to SourceWatch, Rumsfeld stealthily resurrected OSI in a variety of new guises: the Office of Global Communications; the Information Awareness Office (IAO) and the CounterInformation Team.

The next military moves will be tactical as outlined by Gardiner, and they will be timed in syncopation with a blizzard of anti-Iranian propaganda emanating from the perception management agencies under the control of the Pentagon.

Following the defeat of President Ahmadinejad's preferred candidates in local Iranian elections last week, it is now perfectly clear that a US attack would strengthen his increasingly unpopular government. Voices from every part of the political spectrum in Iran are now haranguing President Ahmadinejad who has conveniently left Tehran for an extended tour of Latin America. With Ahmadinejad's popularity dropping sharply, he will welcome the Bush-Cheney plans for war, because they will allow him to wrap himself in the flag and play the role of defender of the faith.

According to ING Wholesale Banking, the economic consequences of a US attack on Iran will be dire. Financial experts predict sharp reactions in the markets, and they are already recommending selling Israeli stocks. The impact on Brent Crude will be dramatic with predictions of price surging to $80 per barrel paralleled by steep plunges in stock prices. Expert analysts predict dramatic drops in: the US dollar; government bond yields; stock markets and industrial raw materials with spikes in oil and gold prices.

According to the latest polls, two-thirds of the American people support negotiations with Iran and oppose a US military attack against Iran that would broaden an already deeply unpopular war. Last week, Senator Joseph Biden (D-Delaware) warned Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, that any broadening of the war against Iraq by an attack across the border into Iran would trigger a constitutional crisis in America. The stage is now set for a historic political confrontation in America that will rival the Watergate crisis of the 1970s.

About the Author: Michael Carmichael is Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, The Planetary Movement, Oxford, UK and a frequent contributor to Global Research.