June 9, 2003
Rebels in Liberia's three-year civil war are on the outskirts of the capital, Monrovia. President Charles Taylor, who is also facing war-crimes charges, may soon be toppled.
Could the end finally be near for Charles Taylor, Liberia's president? Rebels in the country's messy three-year civil war have made some of their strongest incursions yet, fighting their way into the western outskirts of Monrovia, the capital, over the weekend. Foreigners are being flown out as refugees from rebel-held territory have crowded into the city. With the rebels on his doorstep and the loyalty of his cabinet (which he is threatening to sack) in doubt, Mr Taylor's grip on power looks increasingly shaky.
The rebels may have been emboldened by last week's decision by a UN court to slap Mr Taylor with an indictment for war crimes. The indictment, which covers Mr Taylor's dirty dealings in neighbouring Sierra Leone's even ghastlier civil war, was unveiled while Mr Taylor was in Ghana for peace talks with Liberia's rebel leaders. He dashed back home to avoid being detained, only to find out chaos had broken out in Monrovia amid rumours of his arrest and rebel advances. He had his vice-president, Moses Blah, arrested, accusing Mr Blah of attempting a coup while he was away. Several top officials were also detained.
The indictment of Mr Taylor (decided by the court on March 7th but kept secret until he ventured abroad) is welcome. Sierra Leone's war, which ended last year, eclipsed even Africa's usual standards of horror, as tens of thousands of civilians had hands, noses or ears chopped off. Mr Taylor allegedly funnelled arms to the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), Sierra Leone's chief rebels (and limb choppers) in exchange for diamonds, which Liberia then sold abroad. His regime has already been punished for its Sierra Leone dealings by UN sanctions, which were expanded last month, but these have little teeth since Liberia's porous borders allow Mr Taylor to smuggle virtually whatever he wants (usually arms and gems).
Liberia's own civil war is another burden for West Africa. The country has had little respite from war since Mr Taylor helped overthrow the then government in 1990 (the toppled dictator was tortured to death). This sparked a nasty civil war that ended in 1996 with Mr Taylor the chief warlord. He got himself elected president in 1997, but a group known as Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) launched a rebellion against his rule in 1999. In recent months the rebels have advanced, occasionally getting quite near Monrovia, the capital. Another rebel group, known as the Movement for Democracy in Liberia, has recently joined the fray near the border with Cí´te d'Ivoire; the shooting there started only this year. Together the two groups now control most of the country outside the capital.
Despite its small size (population only 3.3m), Liberia's troubles have spread violence and misery through much of West Africa. Besides Mr Taylor's alleged aid to Sierra Leone's RUF, his forces have also backed rebels in Guinea, where a civil war has been going since 2000 (Guinea's government has retaliated by backing Liberia's rebels). Last September another civil war began in the western part of the formerly stable Cí´te d'Ivoire; Mr Taylor appears once again to be behind the scenes, funding two rebel groups there. Many of the rebel fighters are reportedly Liberian nationals.
Worse still has been the plight of Liberia's civilians. With conflicts all around they have nowhere safe to flee (though hundreds of thousands have done so) and are mostly out of reach of aid workers. Some have gone to Guinea or Sierra Leone; many others have recently tried an eastward escape, to Cí´te d'Ivoire, only to be brutalised by local militias.
West Africa's leaders would dearly love to see Liberia's mess resolved. To that end they convened last week's abortive peace talks, attended by the leaders of Nigeria, South Africa and the countries neighbouring Liberia. Shortly before he flew home, Mr Taylor even hinted that he would resign if it would help bring peace. African tyrants are not known for bowing out voluntarily—though with rebel guns sounding in the capital, Mr Taylor's days may be numbered anyway. But even the ousting of Mr Taylor would not fix the mess. The International Crisis Group, a think-tank, points out that the rebel groups are internally splintered and has recommended calling in UN-sanctioned peacekeepers, along the lines of the 1,400 European Union troops that, with the UN's approval, are being sent to try to stop the carnage in another of Africa's gruesome civil conflicts, in Congo. Bringing peace to Liberia will not be easy.
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