Global Policy Forum

By Maggie Farley

The day before the Security Council begins discussions about whether force is required to disarm Iraq, Secretary-General Kofi Annan summoned the council's 15 ambassadors to his office for a private meeting Thursday about the humanitarian toll of war.

A "medium case" scenario would leave nearly half of Iraq's 22 million people in need of immediate food aid and without access to drinking water and sanitation, he told them. The U.N. is preparing for as many as 1.5 million refugees to stream out of the country, and 1 million more could become homeless inside the country. Millions of Iraqis already depend on the U.N. for food rations, and war could cut off that supply while drastically increasing the number of people who need food, shelter and medicine, Annan said.And the U.N. doesn't have enough money to pay for it.

"It's a very grim picture," said a diplomat at the meeting. Annan has maintained a low profile since the beginning of negotiations over Iraq, but his discussion of "the morning after" on the day before a weapons inspectors' report that could lead to war was not an accident, a U.N. official said. Annan will begin a two-week European trip this weekend but wanted to keep the consequences of war on council members' minds, the official said.

Human rights groups have been pressing the U.N. in recent weeks to release its contingency plans for the aftermath of a war. Thursday, it finally did, while emphasizing that the secretary-general does not believe that war is inevitable.

"Contingency planning should not be misconstrued," said Kenzo Oshima, the U.N.'s emergency relief coordinator. "It is simply a matter of prudence. Nevertheless, we must recognize that conflict might occur and cause terrible suffering to the Iraqi people."

Although Oshima refused to discuss possible casualty figures, leaked U.N. documents show that U.N. agencies estimate that an invasion could cause 100,000 immediate casualties and risk nearly 1 million children's deaths from malnutrition. Disabled power plants would likely disrupt sanitation and supplies of clean water, sparking epidemics, the U.N. reports say.

Almost the entire population of Iraq relies on the U.N.-administered "oil-for-food" program, which will likely be disrupted if U.N. staffers have to leave the country. The program allows Iraq to sell oil to buy humanitarian goods. Current household food reserves are expected to last no more than six weeks, Oshima said.

Donor countries have already pledged $37 million to help the U.N. prepare for a war, but Oshima said it needs at least $120 million just to be ready, and more funds will be required after an attack.

During Annan's meeting, U.S. Ambassador John D. Negroponte announced that the United States would give an additional $40 million for contingency planning, on top of $18 million already pledged. Some of the new money will be distributed through the World Food Program and other U.N. agencies, and other funds will go through the U.S. Agency for International Development, a U.S. official said.

The United States has been making specific and sweeping plans for humanitarian aid to Iraqis in the event of an invasion. "As quickly as we take down the country — liberate it — we're going to bring it back up," the U.S. official said. The U.S. military is already massing food and medicine in storehouses in Italy and at a U.S. staging ground near the Iraqi border in Kuwait. The military plans to oversee initial relief activities and gradually hand rebuilding efforts over to humanitarian groups and aid agencies.

According to the U.N.'s plans, the oil-for-food program will continue distributing food with help from the World Food Program, the U.N. Children's Fund will handle water and sanitation, and the U.N. refugee agency will take care of displaced persons.

International relief groups have complained that the U.S. and U.N. have been keeping their contingency plans confidential, frustrating outside efforts to prepare for potential disasters.

"The humanitarian groups and [nongovernmental organizations] have a very important part to play after the area is secured," the U.S. official said. "They are asking us, 'Where do we need to go?' But we're not going to give them our bombing coordinates."

Roger Normand of the New York-based Center for Economic and Social Rights says Iraq has already been reduced to something close to a vast refugee camp through U.N. sanctions. "There will be a humanitarian disaster in the event of war. The U.N. and relief agencies are not prepared to handle this disaster," he said.

Most of the population is dependent on the U.N.'s distribution system, which cannot be replaced by aerial food drops like those used in Afghanistan, Normand said. "It's not just irresponsible but a violation of ethical and legal principles not to address the humanitarian consequences of war in advance."

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