Global Policy Forum

''The Governing Council is in a serious crisis, and they will never get out of it,'' says Wisal Najib Al-Azawi, dean of political science at Mesopotamia University in Baghdad. ''The people now feel that this council is imposed by the Americans.'' Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says that the council has become a liability for the coalition: ''It is clear that the current Governing Council is not fit to be a provisional government.''

The council has little power, but it was supposed to be the first step in the creation of a democratic government. The council's role has taken on new urgency since Nov. 15, when the Bush administration decided to speed up the transfer of power to Iraqis. Convinced that the insurgency will dwindle when Iraqis are in charge of their country, the Coalition Provisional Authority wants to speed up plans to turn over security and government responsibilities to Iraqis.

The council presidency rotates monthly. The current president, Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim, says the council is working hard on problems from corruption to violence. He promises that council committees will soon finish work on details of a U.S.-backed plan for establishing Iraq sovereignty by July 1. That plan, less than 3 weeks old, has already run into a snag. Influential Shiite Muslim clergy have criticized plans for indirect elections in which caucuses and other local councils would select members of a national assembly. Coalition officials reasoned that indirect elections would be simpler in a nation that has no voting rolls and has never held a democratic election. Indirect elections would also increase the chances of all religious and ethnic groups being included in the new government.

Shiites make up 60% of Iraq's 25 million people, and they are eager to exercise power after decades under the thumb of the Sunni sect, of which Saddam Hussein and top regime officials were members. Shiites would probably benefit from a direct vote because they would be able to put more of their people in the assembly.

Al-Hakim expresses confidence that the council will seek middle ground that would satisfy Shiites and the coalition. ''Everybody is optimistic. We don't see any point on which agreement cannot be reached,'' he says. The council hasn't reached a decision on elections. Many in the Bush administration fear that the majority Shiites will exert too much power if elections are held before a constitution is drafted. The constitution is to be written in a separate process.

Entifadh Qanbar, spokesman for council member Ahmad Chalabi, a Bush administration ally, said Tuesday that three committees were created last weekend to study the elections proposal and other problems. Several council members say they doubt details could be worked out quickly enough to satisfy Shiites. Elections are not the only controversy the council faces. Bush administration plans called for dissolving the council when a democratic government is established. But some council members have sought to change the plan so that its members will enjoy special status in the next government. The move has raised suspicions among Iraqis that the council members want to cling to power and have put their own interests before Iraq's.

Members of the council earn $1,500 a month -- more than the annual income of most Iraqis. They have also taken extensive overseas trips and roar around town in expensive SUVs guarded by armies of private guards who brandish machine guns and block streets. But supporters point out that being on the council is a dangerous job. In September, council member Aquila al-Hashimi was shot and killed. Insurgents have assassinated dozens of police and other public officials cooperating with the coalition.

It's a far cry from the heady days right after the invasion, when the council was touted as progress toward a democracy that would serve as a model for the Arab world. Iraqis seem to complain about the council as much as they do the U.S. presence. ''I cannot see any progress for the last six months. They are giving only speeches,'' says Catriss Youhana, 28, a secretary. ''I don't trust any of them.'' ''They don't interact with the citizens. And they don't deal with all the obstacles Iraqis are facing right now, or how to solve those problems,'' says Ahmed Abdul Satter Mahdi, 36, manager of a construction company.

A nationwide survey released on Monday by Oxford Research, a British consulting firm, found that nearly three-fourths of Iraqis had little or no confidence in the government led by U.S. administrator Paul Bremer and the Governing Council. Oxford said 3,244 Iraqis were surveyed from mid-October to mid-November. Al-Azawi, the political scientist, says Americans should now leave governing Iraq to the Iraqis -- and not Iraqis appointed by Americans. ''The Americans, they think that this is like one of their movies that's shown on TV, that things are very simple and easy in this country,'' he says. ''No, that is not right.''

Leon Hadar, research fellow and Middle East specialist at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington, says developments in Iraq should persuade the Bush administration to get realistic about its expectations. ''The notion that Iraq and most of the Arab Middle East could be transformed into a full-fledged democratic system is nothing short of a fantasy.''

FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.